According to our old friend and colleague Tiff Harris, Kenyans are eagerly -- and anxiously -- awaiting the arrival of next month's rains following one of the worst droughts in recent memory. The problem, he writes, is likely to affect all Kenyans, both rural and urban. Harris is based in Nairobi and writes widely on the subjects of agriculture, environment and development. He can be reached at t.harris@cgiar.org.
Millions of farmers and pastoralists in Kenya are counting heavily on El Niño rains that, according to meteorologists, should arrive in October. The projected rains are desperately needed to stave off further widespread hunger in rural areas across the country, but especially in the exceedingly dry north and northeast zones where crops have failed completely and livestock have dropped to about 30% of their usual numbers. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that 10% of the country’s population – about 3.5 million Kenyans – is already at risk of starvation because of drought over the past few years.
At the beginning of 2009, the lingering effects of the persistent drought were made much worse by major social unrest caused by a disputed presidential election. Many farmers in the Rift Valley, Kenya’s traditional breadbasket, missed an entire planting season, and the government now projects that its stores of maize are sufficient to last only one more month. WFP is struggling to meet the rapidly growing needs for emergency food in the region and, if the rains fail again in Kenya, starvation could threaten as many as 6 million people in the coming months, an estimated 70% of them women and children.
Ironically, in the midst of the worst drought in decades, recent headlines in local papers are trumpeting the government’s swift actions to prepare for severe floods expected in October. Those actions are no doubt necessary, but steps to “harvest” as much rainfall as possible should complement them. Three days ago, a small article appeared in local papers alerting Nairobi residents that, if the October rains fail, they can look forward to continued water and power rationing until April of next year – at which point the reservoirs that supply the largest city in East Africa with water and hydropower will run dry.
This post makes me think about the research of Amartya Sen - economist and human rights activist - who contends that famines have a decidedly political element. His research shows that there haven't been any prolonged famines in countries with democratic governments and free press - tools that vulnerable citizens can use to demand that their needs be met. Additional research shows that African famines rarely, if ever, occur because of a decline in the aggregate supply of food, and that distribution is the critical factor (UNDP 2000). Such research suggests that solutions to Kenya's drought will - like the well-being of Kenya as a whole - depend on the unity government getting its act together.
ReplyDeleteTiff Harris, the author of this post, reports that Kenya is finally getting some much-needed rain, but not in all of the locations where it's needed. He also sent a link to a New York Times story published today that highlights the challenge of feeding future generations. Its worth a look: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/22/world/22food.html?_r=1&emc=eta1
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